Comments on: Two curves: My view on the BC cleantech sector at the beginning of 2010 http://www.troyangrignon.com/2010/03/02/two-curves-my-view-on-the-bc-cleantech-sector-at-the-beginning-of-2010/ Business • Technology • Society • Environment Sun, 16 May 2010 21:41:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Troy http://www.troyangrignon.com/2010/03/02/two-curves-my-view-on-the-bc-cleantech-sector-at-the-beginning-of-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-1213 Troy Fri, 05 Mar 2010 16:12:59 +0000 http://www.troyangrignon.com/?p=1015#comment-1213 Hi Dan, thanks for the comment. Admittedly by Tainter's model, adding more complexity (systems, organizations, etc.) leads to the marginal return you mention. My point is that in no other time in history up until now, have we had this opportunity to exploit this level of technological innovation that is on such a rapidly accelerating curve. We are the first to be both blessed and challenged by the rate at which it's accelerating. Whether that gets used to increase productivity and decrease resource usage per capita is really the key question. Or will we just amuse ourselves to death, increase overall complexity and then fall down the step-function staircase into decline? Not sure. But following Tainter's model says that innovation leading to increased productivity is the only way out. And Diamond's model posits that there are ways to get past some of our most intransigent problems like the tragedy of the commons issues and dealing with irrational and rational actors. Regardless, I think it's important not to be nihilistic and throw our hands in the air but to work on the issue. So my question to you would be...okay, so what is your response? innovation that increases productivity is – in the long run – the only way out of the dismal science dilemma of declining marginal returns on added investments in complexity. Hi Dan, thanks for the comment. Admittedly by Tainter’s model, adding more complexity (systems, organizations, etc.) leads to the marginal return you mention. My point is that in no other time in history up until now, have we had this opportunity to exploit this level of technological innovation that is on such a rapidly accelerating curve. We are the first to be both blessed and challenged by the rate at which it’s accelerating. Whether that gets used to increase productivity and decrease resource usage per capita is really the key question. Or will we just amuse ourselves to death, increase overall complexity and then fall down the step-function staircase into decline? Not sure. But following Tainter’s model says that innovation leading to increased productivity is the only way out. And Diamond’s model posits that there are ways to get past some of our most intransigent problems like the tragedy of the commons issues and dealing with irrational and rational actors. Regardless, I think it’s important not to be nihilistic and throw our hands in the air but to work on the issue. So my question to you would be…okay, so what is your response?

innovation that increases productivity is – in the long run – the only way out of the dismal science dilemma of declining marginal returns on added investments in complexity.

]]> By: Dan http://www.troyangrignon.com/2010/03/02/two-curves-my-view-on-the-bc-cleantech-sector-at-the-beginning-of-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-1212 Dan Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:11:41 +0000 http://www.troyangrignon.com/?p=1015#comment-1212 I don't think you've really read or understood Joseph Tainter's work at all if you believe that our complex (global) society can overcome the collapse curve. It's inevitable, and increased tech and R&D will only stave it off temporarily (because there are declining marginal returns on investments in complexity). Unless we somehow find another planet to invade and exploit. "We need to..." "We need to..." All you're suggesting is an increase in social complexity. This is unsustainable in the long run. I don’t think you’ve really read or understood Joseph Tainter’s work at all if you believe that our complex (global) society can overcome the collapse curve. It’s inevitable, and increased tech and R&D will only stave it off temporarily (because there are declining marginal returns on investments in complexity). Unless we somehow find another planet to invade and exploit.

“We need to…” “We need to…” All you’re suggesting is an increase in social complexity. This is unsustainable in the long run.

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